# Incremental R²: Demographic Contribution to Crisis Prediction

| Dependent Variable | R² (EW only) | R² (EW + Z) | ΔR² | % Improvement |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Banking Crisis Onset | 0.0037 | 0.0076 | 0.0039 | 105.8% |
| Any Crisis Onset | 0.0173 | 0.0198 | 0.0025 | 14.4% |
| CA Reversal (≥3pp) | 0.0328 | 0.0511 | 0.0183 | 55.8% |

*ΔR² measures the additional explanatory power from adding Z₁, Z₂, Z₃ to early warning models.*